THE CICAK.com

Opposition parties could provide a tough fight in 2008 snap elections

By CHAN SHIJUN

Wow, it could soon be exciting times for Malaysian politics if rumblings of a possible snap general election (GE) in 2008 prove to be true, and I am proud to state that I would be cheering for the Democratic Action Party (DAP) and Parti Keadilan Rakyat in the election if it does come around early.

For the politically-challenged, perhaps a short introduction on the various competing political parties is in order. The coalition currently in power at the federal level, as well as in 12 states, is the Barisan Nasional (BN). It consists of four major parties - the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA), the Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC) and Parti Gerakan Rakyat Malaysia, as well as an assortment of other state-level parties in Sabah and Sarawak.

On the opposition corner, we have the DAP, whose traditional strongholds consist of urban areas on the Peninsular; Keadilan, which has a moderate presence in the northern states and Sarawak; and finally Parti Islam Semalaysia (PAS), which currently holds Kelantan.

Why all the speculation about a 2008 GE? Well, there are a few reasons for this.

The most prominent one is that former deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim would be eligible to contest for a seat if the elections are held any time after April 2008, as his ban on standing for office would end by then. Another reason offered for the possibility of a snap election is to allow Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi to settle Tun Dr Mahathir’s long-running spat with him once and for all by asking the voters whose views they ultimately support.

BN = UMNO + MCA + MIC + Gerakan

Let’s start our analysis with the ruling coalition first, shall we? First off, PM Abdullah is in trouble at the moment. Big trouble. His anti-corruption drive, which swept his party into power with 92 percent of the parliamentary seats in the ’04 GE, is now beginning to look like a joke. A few small fries in the business and political world were caught, but that was about it. Hardly any big fish were snared in his half-hearted campaign. The Anti-Corruption Agency (ACA) should be renamed the “Apa Corruption (What Corruption)? Agency.�

Abdullah’s only economic initiative, a “back to agriculture� policy, seems positively retrograde when juxtaposed against Tun Dr Mahathir’s modernisation drives of the past.

This brings us to his spat with Dr M. The former prime minister has voiced many criticisms of Abdullah, some of which are not justified (think of the crooked bridge), and some of which – including his concerns about corruption – are legitimate. In doing this, Dr. Mahathir is trying to paint Abdullah as a weak, indecisive and ineffective leader, and in my personal opinion, he is succeeding.

Our present prime minister has also been dogged by allegations that he is only a puppet leader, with his son-in-law being the real power behind the throne. Again, this allegation, whether true or not, is now widely accepted as the gospel truth among many Malaysians, and they are not impressed.

But all of that is of secondary importance to many Malaysians; to quote Bill Clinton, “It’s the economy, stupid.�

Unfortunately for Abdullah, the economy’s health at the moment ain’t very good. Unemployment, especially among new graduates, is increasing. Manufacturing firms are closing up their Malaysian factories and relocating them in other countries with cheaper labour forces, leaving local people out of jobs. Malaysia’s international competitiveness is falling, and real incomes are falling. I for one am wondering whether the government is doing enough to address these pressing issues.

Since the recession brought on by the 1997 Asian Economic Crisis, China, India and Vietnam have emerged as the new Asian Tigers, and have diverted a lot of foreign direct investment away from Malaysia. Singapore has long anticipated this and quickly - to use some PC game jargon - “teched up� their economy to become a biomedical and financial centre, in trying to wean itself from the manufacturing industry.

Malaysia hasn’t quite reached there yet, and so is currently still relying on the manufacturing sector which helped industrialise Malaysia during the ’80s and ’90s. However, this is destined to be a doomed venture, as China is capable of producing anything Malaysia can, at a fraction of the cost. As such, the economic prospects Malaysia is facing right now are not looking too bright.

I personally think the only noticeable improvement during Abdullah’s administration is the slightly more liberal political environment Malaysians are enjoying at the moment. The Internal Security Act (ISA) hasn’t been used recently on any political dissenters, which is commendable. Hope this continues.

Turning to the Opposition parties now:

DAP

DAP has been revitalised with its breakthrough in the recent Sarawak state elections, where it won six seats in a previously impenetrable BN stronghold state. In the process, it hammered the Sarawak United People’s Party (SUPP), a BN Chinese-majority component party, by halving its seats. It will be interesting to see whether DAP can repeat this feat against the MCA and Gerakan (especially with the debacle in Penang right now) on the peninsular.

DAP has also embraced the Internet, and the blog of its leader Lim Kit Siang has attracted an impressive readership base among all races. It has also helped DAP bypass the censorship and anti-opposition bias of the mainstream media to convey its undistorted views and positions to the common rakyat. I would be interested to see whether this will translate into more votes and seats for DAP in the election.

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Keadilan

Even more interesting is Keadilan, which was hammered in the last GE. As such, this election is virtually its do-or-die last stand. It saddens me that such a good multiracial concept may soon go under.
Keadilan poses a large threat to BN, especially to UMNO’s supremacy, since it is a Malay-majority party. It is the only moderate Malay-majority party left in the Malaysian political spectrum which does not operate on an Islamic platform. The survival of this party represents a huge opportunity for all Malaysians - regardless of race - who want a two-party system to evolve in Malaysia.

There has never been a better chance for this, except for Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah’s Semangat 46 multiracial coalition in the ’80s. Semangat 46 was the first secular opposition party in Malaysia which had substantial support among the Malay voters. Since its demise, no other opposition party has ever been able to recapture the support of enough Malay voters to present a serious threat to UMNO. Although I am a big DAP fan, I am realistic enough to acknowledge that DAP will never be a primary governing party in its present form. It lacks Malay membership and support.

On the other hand, a party like Keadilan can fill that role with minimal racial friction. What it needs to do now is build up its grassroots network and compete tooth-and-nail to win the Malay-majority seats, as well as share some of the urban seats with DAP.

The key to winning elections in Malaysia is to snatch those rural Malay seats from UMNO, as the grossly unfair gerrymandering process of constituency lines has resulted in a rural voter’s vote being worth about 10 times more than an urban voter’s vote (Editor’s note: See Rachel Leow’s Study in Sweets series for more information). This has always prevented DAP from winning more seats, and a factor which helped PAS win large numbers of federal and state seats due to the Malay protest votes in the 1999 general election.

Keadilan has also been bolstered by the return of Anwar Ibrahim, and by the steady guidance of the veteran Dr. Syed Husin Ali at its helm. Its sizeable Chinese and Indian membership also deflects accusation that it is really just another “Malay� party, and this is surely an enticing choice for many Malaysians with a multiracial outlook.

But to succeed, it MUST, and I stress, MUST distance itself from PAS. PAS is merely an eastern state-level party, and has nothing to offer Keadilan in its quest to win national governance from BN. No doubt, these are very interesting times for Keadilan.

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PAS

As for PAS, well, what can I say? I think PAS will have its worst performance this GE. Support for the Islamic party in Malaysia has gone down heaps lately. PAS lost Terengganu in the last GE, and lost yet another seat in a state by-election in its stronghold Kelantan. Its chances are pretty dim, in my opinion.

The thing with PAS was that its members made a strategic error after its big wins in the 1997 elections, where the party won two states and 27 federal seats. Part of its manifesto then was the implementation of the Hudud laws if it got into power. Due to its large electoral gains in that election, PAS came to the wrong conclusion that these laws had the support of many Malaysians. However, this was erroneous, as the real reason for the party’s success then was because it had picked up the protest votes from voters who were unhappy with the treatment meted out to Anwar Ibrahim.

The fact that DAP has consistently been the largest opposition party in Malaysia at the federal level, and the fact that the secular BN has been winning every election in the past should really be an indication to PAS that the majority of Malaysians prefer parties with secular policies. PAS fatally decided to continue promoting the Hudud laws in its 2004 election campaign, and was subsequently punished by the voters.

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Ultimately, it’s all up to the Malaysian voters. In the next GE, they must choose either to continue to be governed by a coalition of inept, race-based parties, or to desire change and the cultivation of a true “Bangsa Malaysia� identity, and therefore give DAP and Keadilan a chance to be in power. I certainly would be willing to give the opposition parties a chance in the limelight to prove that they can do a better job at governing the states and country.

The decision is yours, guys. Make it count.
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CHAN SHIJUN is a contributing writer for theCICAK.

Shijun is a sleep-deprived accounting student at the University of Sydney who (shock! horror!) kinda likes his course. He subscribes to social democracy, loves reading, hamsters and coffee. Visit his site.